Pesquisador do Cepesp analisa impacto da morte de Eduardo Campos no New York Times

CEPESP  |  15 de agosto de 2014

A morte do candidato à Presidência Eduardo Campos (PSB) em um trágico acidente de avião na última quarta-feira, 13 de agosto, repercutiu na imprensa internacional. O professor da FGV e pesquisador do Cepesp, Carlos Pereira, foi fonte de uma matéria que saiu no New York Times sobre o assunto.

O pesquisador argumenta que a vice da chapa, Marina Silva, teria mais condições de atrair votos do que Campos, que era desconhecido por uma parcela significativa do eleitora. Por outro lado, seu nome encontra mais resistência entre os representantes do PIB brasileiro.

Leia a matéria completa, em inglês, abaixo ou no site do NYT.

The campaign plane of Eduardo Campos, a Brazilian presidential candidate and scion of a resurgent political dynasty, crashed on Wednesday in the port city of Santos, killing him and six others and shaking up an increasingly competitive race in Latin America’s largest democracy.

The plane, a Cessna Citation business jet, crashed near a gym in a residential area of Santos, a city near São Paulo where Mr. Campos’s campaign had scheduled several events on Wednesday, the Brazilian news media reported. The weather was rainy, though aviation officials said they were just starting to investigate the cause of the crash.

Residents of the area where the plane went down said they saw charred body parts strewn around the streets as smoke billowed in the sky. Among the other passengers who died in the crash were senior campaign aides, the campaign’s official photographer, the official videographer and two pilots.

“It was like something out of a war: walls on fire, parts of bodies, houses destroyed, soldiers, police,” said Rebeca Luongo, 31, a call center employee who lives a block from the crash site.

The crash abruptly shifts the dynamics of a race as President Dilma Rousseff seeks re-election during an economic slump. Mr. Campos, 49, who broke last year from the Workers Party’s governing coalition, had been running in third place in public opinion surveys as a left-leaning candidate seeking to appeal to Brazil’s business establishment and environmentalists.

Ms. Rousseff and her top challenger, Aécio Neves, a leader of the centrist Social Democrats who has drifted toward the right, are now expected to vie for Mr. Campos’s supporters. Ms. Rousseff remains well ahead of Mr. Neves in the polls, though a first-round victory in October has appeared increasingly unlikely, potentially setting the stage for a fiercely contested final round of voting.

But the plane crash could also bolster support for Mr. Campos’s running mate, Marina Silva, if his party allows her to run in his place. Ms. Silva, an environmentalist and outspoken critic of Ms. Rousseff’s government, ran for president in 2010, finishing third with about 19 percent of the vote.

“She could lure more votes than Eduardo himself,” said Carlos Pereira, a professor of political science at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, a top Brazilian university, who noted that Ms. Silva was better known in Brazil than Mr. Campos. But Mr. Pereira also emphasized that she would need to build support among business leaders who might be more willing throw support behind Mr. Neves.

Ms. Silva, 56, appeared shaken in brief televised comments, expressing condolences for Mr. Campos’s widow and their five children. Ms. Silva was reported to have planned to travel to Santos with Mr. Campos but changed her plans on Wednesday morning, opting to take a commercial flight with several aides.

Ms. Silva did not say on Wednesday whether she would seek to replace Mr. Campos on the ballot.

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Mr. Campos had emerged on the national political scene as the governor of Pernambuco, a state in northeast Brazil where the federal government has invested heavily in the construction of shipyards and a huge oil refinery in a sprawling port complex near the city of Recife.

An economist by training, he entered politics in the shadow of his grandfather, Miguel Arraes, a leftist political leader who held sway in their Pernambuco bastion for decades. Mr. Arraes died at age 88 in 2005 of complications from dengue fever on the same date that his grandson died in the plane crash, Aug. 13.

As Mr. Arraes’s political heir, Mr. Campos rose to the leadership of the Brazilian Socialist Party in the late 1990s and forged an alliance with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s former president, over much of the past decade.

Mr. Campos served in Mr. da Silva’s cabinet before returning to Pernambuco to build momentum for his own presidential bid. A gifted speaker, he thrived at public appearances while also focusing on the minutiae of political deals needed to cobble together a party with ambitions beyond Pernambuco.

He portrayed himself as a leftist, but Mr. Campos was also known for his conservative views on social issues, such as opposing legislation to ease Brazil’s ban on most types of abortion. In one of his most recent interviews, he rejected claims that he had improperly sought to obtain a coveted seat on Brazil’s national auditing court for his mother, Ana Arraes.

Both Ms. Rousseff and Mr. Neves, the leading presidential candidates, said they were temporarily suspending their campaigns as the nation absorbs the death of Mr. Campos. After Mr. Campos’s remains are examined in São Paulo as part of the investigation into the crash, he is expected to be buried alongside his grandfather in a tomb in Recife.

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